Indian stock market is experiencing a sharp fall for the last one and a half months. When market falls sharply, everyone, who has invested in the market, gets disturbed. It's not possible not to feel fearful in the crashing market. But you need to remind yourself that *This shall also pass*. It has never happened in the last forty five years of the Indian stock market history that it didn't rebounce. Real money is made when you invest in a falling market. If you are fully invested, please sit tight on your current investment. Your loss is just notional. The profits will come back if you are patient. When things get uncertain, it doesn't make sense to get out of the market.Volatility is an inherent characteristic of the market.
If you look back at 16 to 18 years of data, *every year* y ou have had*double digit correction* baring I think, 2 years. When you have below par performance is when you get that big boost. Let's go back in history, from 1994 to 2003. That was the only period in sensex history of nine years, when net return was almost zero. Mind you, SIPs were still able to beat FD returns because of the non-linearity of the stock market. From *2003 to 2007,* the market went up *six times.* So, you have to be patient in equity market. When things get uncertain, it doesn't make sense to get out of the market. All of us understand that one can lose money in the equity market in short term. But the *bigger risk is also not being invested* in equity market. So, one has to manage with risk controls because being out of the market also has its risk. If you look back and analyse 45 years of old data, you find that if you *miss out of 10 best days,* it takes out *2/3rd of your returns* and if you miss out on *30 best days*, you miss out on *90% of the returns*. So, one can't really time the market. The only timing one can do is buy more when markets are falling and book some profits in form of tax harvesting and re-invest if you don't require that money.
Many of you must be new to equity market. With 10% market fall in the last two months, your portfolio might be in *red*. Do you need to worry? Absolutely *NO* if you are a SIP Investor. If you start investing in mutual fund SIPs and the markets start falling, then it is blessings in disguise and *the best* thing that may happen to you. You know why; It is because you keep *accumulating more units at a lower price.* Ultimately, markets have to *go up in the long term* because that is the inherent characteristic of the stock market. The market will generate greed and fear. Stock investment is *more of Psychology and less of intelligence*. One who can control his greed, fear and emotions will win. So, *NOT TO WORRY* about market turbulence and try to take advantage of it by continuing your SIPs and top up your SIPs with lumpsum investment.
Indian stock market has been experiencing a sharp fall for the last two months.The following factors are currently weighing on investor sentiment.
*Dollar surges to 4-month high*
Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election has strengthened the dollar index, which has risen by almost 3% in the last one month.
*Continued FPI selling*
The total outflows for November till last Monday is almost ₹22,000 crore, according to the latest Trendlyne data. Throughout October, FPIs remained net sellers, offloading ₹1.14 lakh crore worth of Indian stocks through exchanges.
*Geopolitical tension*
Due to the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the market is unsure about the upcoming sessions. This status of uncertainty is also a reason for sharp selling in the Indian stock market.
*Concerns over extreme valuations* Indian stock market is expensive compared to the rest of the emerging markets. Before the fall Nifty 50 was trading at PE of 24.5, midcap 100 at 44.5 and small index was at 34.5. Even after 8 to 9% fall, the nifty 50 is still trading at PE of 22.2 midcap 100 at 41.2 and small index was at 31.4.
*A Slowdown in Q2 Earnings*
The disappointing Q2 earnings from major companies have also fueled selling pressure on Dalal Street. Q2 results of the 2024 season have remained below market estimates while the falling Indian National Rupee (INR) has fueled buzz for the *pressure on the fiscal deficit* of the Indian economy.
*China's Recent Stimulus Package*
China's recent stimulus measures have attracted overseas investors, hoping that these new initiatives will help Beijing revive its economy, which has been under pressure following the COVID-19 pandemic. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are *shifting investments from overheated Indian stocks to cheap Chinese markets*, as they do not see any near-term catalysts to justify maintaining valuations at elevated levels in India.
*Rupee reaches another low*
The strong surge in the US dollar, coupled with persistent FPI outflows, is exerting significant pressure on the Indian rupee, which fell to a new record low of ₹84.41 against the US dollar.
*Concerns over delay in rate cuts*
While major central banks worldwide, including the US Federal Reserve, have already started reducing interest rates, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained a status quo.
*Rising Inflation in India*
Rising inflation has been a persistent issue, affecting consumer demand, especially among middle and lower income groups. Inflation can significantly impact the purchasing power of consumers, leading to a decrease in their standard of living. As the prices of goods and services increase, consumers have to spend more money to maintain their current lifestyle, leading to a decrease in their disposable income.
If you are still worried about recent market fall, then I will like to tell you that after every steep fall, market bounce back. Market is looking for some direction right now. It may remain sideways for time being. Stock market returns are slaves of earnings of the companies. Any bad news, market may fall again. Maharashtra win for incumbent government was a short blip. If RBI cuts interest rates, then market should give a thumps up. We may to wait till Jan 25 for Q3 earnings. If the results are better than Q2, then again it's good news for the market. If government takes some steps to boost the consumer sentiments, again market will go up. Stock market movement is always non linear but it will go up in long term because historical data shows us the same. Let's have a look at last 15 years of data. First column is Time period, second is return of BSE 500 and third column shows the next 12 months return.
*Pd* *BSE 500* *1 yr ahead*
Jan 08-Mar 09 -66% 128%
Jul 11-Oct 11 -13% 19%
Jun 13-Sep 13 -10% 60%
Apr 15-Feb 16 -16% 33%
Oct 16-Jan 17 -11% 43%
Apr 18-Nov 18 -8% 15%
Jun 19-Sep 19 -10% 10%
Feb 20-Apr 20 -37% 99%
Nov 21-Jul 22 -17% 25%
It is clearly evident that every market fall is succeeded by a sharp market rise. Though past data can't guarantee the future returns but it shows some kind of trend of stock market. If funds are available to you at this point, then it is advisable to top up your SIPs to get extra momentum in your investments. Take advantage of lower prices and buy more. You should become greedy when others are fearful (Warren Buffett).
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